THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Head Coach – Andy Reid
Offensive Coordinator - Doug Pederson
The Kansas City Chiefs just missed the playoffs in 2014 and it was due to numerous problems. You could easily blame it on the quarterback but that is too shallow and we here at Fantasy Football 1 on 1 go deeper than the obvious scenario. We dig deep under the surface to find true NFL nuggets and then translate them easily to fantasy (dynasty, keeper, redraft) to help you DOMINATE your competition.
This offense started red hot week 2 (after a week 1 Jamaal diss against the Titans Sep 7 Final (L) 26-10 Jamaal - 7 rushes for 19). They won and lost some games then they came out of the week 6 bye heavily dependent on Jamaal. KC rattled off 5 straight wins until defenses started to jump the WR’s routes and disrespect the whole offense. After that Jamaal never saw a 20 game carry again but to make matters worse for Jamaal, after week 12 no more than 10 and it was clear Andy Reid reverted back to week 1 tactics and demoted Jamaal’s carries and moved the ball with other players. You remember, Andy Reid would say week in and week out at his pressers that he would vow to get Jamaal Charles more touches the following week but he seemed to limit him just like he did week 1. It was as the off season mission was to limit Jamaal’s role in this offense and let other players emerge. This is why we preach learning the coaching styles and systems and if you stick around we will teach you every one of them. As I always say “learning real NFL schemes keep you from playing fantasy football on Sunday’s.” When I say fantasy (in this sense only) I mean playing a dream game in your head that will never happen on the football field and will get you DOMINATED on.
This team is built on speed and if you plan on drafting or keeping a player from this offense then they better have world class speed. This team relied on bubble screens, short crossers, trips and the jet sweep to get the ball into its fastest player’s hands in 2014. The philosophy here is to get the ball out quick and let the receiver make a person miss and use their speed and elusiveness to get up field. While these concepts helped mask the QB’s deficiencies they drastically demoted the wide receivers role. The whole wide receiving section did NOT record a touchdown during the whole 2014 NFL season. The scheme calls for Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis or Kelce inside the red zone for most of the touches. However I did see Dwayne Bowe (and other WR’s) tackled inside the 5 yard line numerous times but that’s just downright unacceptable in real life and for fantasy.
The core of this offense and pecking order for 2015 is as follows - Charles, Kelce, DT, Bowe and Kniles (unless Charles is injured). This is why we are one of the leaders in fantasy because we break down the schemes and watch the film and they tells us where the players are going to evolve from. Remember talent comes BEFORE stats not vice versa as the media suggests. You must retrain your thought process to get out in front of your competition and start making moves weeks and months earlier than the media. This automatically makes you a serious fantasy football weapon to be reckoned with.
This team went from a Traditional Pro style to a Modified West Coast to an Ace/W Personnel Offensive scheme in the past three years. When changes like this take place the coaching staff is excellent because they are adapting the scheme to fit or best utilize the talent on the roster. Coaching staffs like this are few and hard to find.
Let’s meet the offense
12 personnel is the Base Offense for the Kansas City Chiefs
X LT LG C RG RT TE1 TE2 Z
As you can see this is what’s called 12 personnel. This is because you have 1 RB and 2 TE’s in the formation. They also used 21, 13 and 11 but 12 is the base formation for the KC offense in 2015 and going forward. This formation gives us a mountain of NFL nuggets to dissect and find the positions that stack up the fantasy numbers which translate to more wins for you and more smack talk to disburse.
Now let’s place some names to the letters above and get to work.
THE SCOUTING REPORT
THE OFFENSIVE LINE - The offensive line consists of a very good young core of players who have been moved around a bit but seem to have found their home for the 2015 season. They have a fairly deep unit and I would label them as (Excellent – Good – Average) GOOD. This offensive line mainly saw the bulk of its letdown when KC were behind and defenses started using the delayed blitz. The center missed some protection calls but this is hard to overcome because it happened to Dallas and numerous other O Lines at some point during the season.
LT Eric Fisher # 72 is entering his third year with the Chiefs. While he played more on the right side last season he is back home on the left side in 2015. He settled in by week 9 in 2014 and looked a lot better as the season progressed. We all know that the LT is out on an island all alone and cannot get help. He looked good against the Titans and even better against the Patriots. This is what you want from any young player is to see growth. Let’s hope his progress continues.
LG Mike McGlynn # 75 has over taken Jeffrey Linkenbach for the starting gig. He seemed a little more fluid than Jeffery and has the speed to assist in the power run game. He is a player that will help Jamaal continue his dominance in 2015.
C Rodney Hudson # 61 He’s a 08 4th round pick and nothing like watching a designed run to the weak side with Knile Davis and the O Line has to man up and put a hat on a hat. While the play is going in slow motion one by one you see the defenders being dragged or pushed to the ground. The O Line wins and Knile is not touched until 47 yards down the field.
RG Zach Fulton #73 is a 14 6th round draft pick and is playing well for where he was picked. Immediately inserted into the starting lineup and is holding his own in most cases. If I had to pick a weak link in this Offensive it would be Zach.
LT Ryan Harris #68 is a 07 3rd round draft pick to the Denver Broncos. He gets beat at times but is good at setting the edge for the RB to run around. He uses his arms OK and always tries to make first contact with his arms extended which is what we want to see.
THE QUARTER BACK
ALEX SMITH Alex Smith is a decent starting QB but his skill set fits more into the two QB settings. He holds the ball too long at times and takes unnecessary sacks. While he does have decent speed and can gain yardage with his legs we would like to see him use his check downs a little more frequently. He pre determines where he is going with the ball pre snap and is too stubborn to take what the defense is giving him post snap. He has an average arm (which is not a gun) and can make the deep throws he just does not make them with accuracy. Really needs to develop his deep game during the off season. His main flaw is not being able to throw a WR open (anticipation) which demolishes him from being a top tier QB in the NFL. If the receiver does not get separation he will not throw it he either pulls and runs or takes the sack. You rarely see back shoulder and fades in this offense. This one area demotes him from being inserted into my draft plan unless we are in two QB settings.
THE RUNNING BACKS
JAMAAL CHARLES #25 let’s get this clear and out in the open. Jamaal Charles is one of the most elusive and speedy RB’s in the NFL. Charles is rare because he has big back skills instilled into a smaller backs frame. He can make you miss and go to the house on any given play but at the same time drain the clock when a lead is obtained. My concern is his usage in 2015. One huge plus for Charles is when they get near the red zone he is getting a shot at scoring the TD first but the threat of Knile Davis is a little bigger than what meets the eye. Charles can break tackles, make you miss, out run you, catch, pass protect, bang in between the A,B gaps, and do everything you wish a first round RB could do.
We are concerned about the coaches’ view of him getting nicked and scraped over the course of a 16 game season. Also his age is coming into play for dynasty/keeper settings. Please don’t get us wrong we love Charles’s overall talent but we are shying away from him this season in redraft with a top 5 draft pick in 2015. There are younger horses that are invading the NFL and fantasy that can carry more of the load for you with your early draft picks. It’s time to start putting Jamaal Charles on the block in dynasty keeper settings and see what you can get before you get stuck. You can last one more season but by the start of the 2016 season he should be off of your roster. Hear me now and believe me later.
Knile Davis #34 Knile is a MUST add to your roster in any settings. We here at Fantasy Football 1 on 1 think Knile is a better back for this system than Jamaal Charles. He runs with a low pad level and is not afraid to make contact with his defenders. He has the necessary speed to get downfield. His vision is decent and he can catch the ball but mostly because he is younger and stronger. He is more of a straight line runner and does not possess nothing close to the elusiveness that Charles brings to the game.
In dynasty setting within the next three years we foresee Charles backing up Kniles on third down duties. If you notice when Charles is out of the game Kniles gets a ton of work even between the tackles and a lot for ppr settings. The coaching staff seems a little more in line
and comfortable with letting the whole offense flow through Kniles rather than Charles as early as 2016. Look for Kniles to gain more carries subtly because father time is undefeated. While Charles is not slowing down on film and he was underutilized under Todd Haley for a couple of seasons, its coming and when it happens it will be quick. Make sure you are on the right side of the coin in dynasty keeper leagues.
De’Anthony Thomas #13 this guy maybe one of the main reasons as to why we here Fantasy Football 1 on 1 preach and teach the concepts, and schemes over stats as we do. As you remember in the introduction that this offense is built for speed, short bubble screens, and plays designed to get people in space to make a defender miss. What better player to go and pick up right now in your dynasty and keeper leagues than De’Anthony Thomas. His skill set fits perfectly into what Andy and Doug are trying to accomplish in 2015 and forward. DT was injured for most of the beginning of the season so he missed out on a lot of plays and acclimation to the speed of the NFL. Once he got on the field you could see the coaching staff slowly designing and making him a vital part of the game plan. Another huge bonus is that DT can carry RB and WR designation in your league settings. What we don’t like is the small frame which will limit his A, B gap carries to no more than 7 but he will score fantasy points in ppr settings. He also offers well needed flexibility when setting rosters for Sunday dominance.
The core of this offense and pecking order for 2015 is as follows - Charles, Kelce, DT, Bowe and Kniles (unless Charles is injured). This is why we are one of the leaders in fantasy because we break down the schemes and watch the film and they tells us where the players are going to evolve from. Remember talent comes BEFORE stats. You must retrain your thought process to get out in front of your competition and start making moves weeks and months earlier than the media.
THE WIDE RECIEVERS
THE TIGHT ENDS
TRAVIS KELCE This guy is big and fast and most folks in the media compare him to Gronk. I do not make that comparison because Kelce is too fast and Gronk is too physical. Kelce is more of a finesse TE who moves to ALL positions from play to play. This is a MUST if I am going to invest a value pick on a TE in 2015 in redraft settings. There are about 5 TE’s that can play the U, Y, X, Z, FB and Kelce makes the grade. He catches with his hands and fully understands route concepts. He has a long stride and sees the field well and looks slower on film than in game play. Don’t get confused and be “that guy.” We would like to see him be tad bit more physical and harder to tackle and fight for opportunities on the field and also cut down on the fumbles in 2015.
He also still has a little more growing to do and fits perfectly into the make a player miss scheme that KC runs. He has a big red zone radius which I have yet to see Andy Reid take full advantage of yet which is a huge plus. This guy is a MUST for dynasty keeper buffs. He very rarely blocks and I frequently see the media calling for Fasano to go elsewhere. These folks don’t understand the power of the 12, 13 formations which free up Kelce to be more of a WR than an inline blocking TE. This is definitely what you want so please don’t let this confuse you as well. We here at Fantasy Football 1 on 1 fully expect to see Kelce go over 1,000 receiving yards in 2015 and finish top 6 in fantasy.
THE KICKER –
THE DEFENSE -
THE RETURN TEAM – The return team is excellent and help make this DST a top option in return yardage leagues. Kniles Davis, Frankie Hammonds and De’Anthony Thomas combine to bring elusiveness and explosion to special teams. They rarely take a knee even on deep kicks. They almost always bring them out for good yardage. Also the punt and kick return with De’Anthony and Knile can go to the house at any time.
THE 2015 ROOKIES –
FINAL THOUGHTS FOR FANTASY -
Offensive Depth Chart
POSITION STARTER 2nd 3rd 4th
X WR Dwayne Bowe Albert Wilson Frankie Hammond
TE Y Anthony Fasano Y/U Travis Kelce Richard Gordon
LT Eric Fisher Ryan Harris
LG Mike McGlynn Jeffrey Linkenbach
C Rodney Hudson Eric Kush
RG Zach Fulton Laurent Duvernay-Tardif
RT Ryan Harris Donald Stephenson
Z WR Donnie Avery Jason Avant De'Anthony Thomas
QB Alex Smith O Chase Daniel Aaron Murray
FB Anthony Sherman
RB Jamaal Charles Knile Davis De'Anthony Thomas Charcandrick West
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