Wednesday, June 24, 2020

DK Metcalf #FantasyFootball Profile

DK Metcalf - Fantasy Football Profile 
Over 12 years experience

I understand that everyone is high on DK Metcalf and they should be.
• 6'4" / 229lbs Dec 14, 1997 / 22 in his second year
• Big bodied X - year one - they master the art of my ball go routes and slants
• He proved that and mastered everything that was given to him
• Let me explain the X a little further. He is the X in a traditional pro set offense
• He is a HUGE part of the offense because he will be doubled
• Its the RB X WR and TE who are the target/red zone hogs in this type system
• The traditional pro set evolved from the T formation where you had the Y U (2TE) QB 2 RB and a FB its design is for the run because there are no WR’s on the field
• Back in the old days the rules changed and catered more towards passing (sounds familiar)
• So the 3rd RB became the Z and the U TE became the X ISO and the most important pass catcher
• The X’s job is to create running space for the RB with his dominance on the boundary
• This is why by default he is the number one target on the team with no debate
• DK got 100 targets and caught 58 for 900 with 7 touchdowns. This is great for a rookie
• The traditional pro set yields 1200+ with 10+ year in and year out when ran right because it has to
• I look for an uptick from DK because he will be asked to do more and more with more targets to help Chris Carson gain more yards. It all works together
• This is by design or scheme and nothing else. DK just fits perfectly
Hes coming off the board at the 5.2 in FFPC ppr redraft but his real value is in dynasty
• Guys like Metcalf are a dying breed. They don’t make them like this anymore
• Out of all 32 teams there are about 12 BALLERS at X and they score HUGE for fantasy. Count DK in. He’s a young Julio Jones in Seattle. DK will be used the same
• The X WR is getting smaller and shiftier in the new age NFL
• Look at Houston they shipped off their X and replaced him with a smaller faster Cooks – It's the new NFL
• Wrap this up with a smart organization stable coaching staff stability by not learning a new play book every year and a front office that's always adding talent to help him.
• With someone winning there has to be a loser and in this case - Tyler Lockett
Tyler Lockett will soon be phased out and replaced so they can pay DK the big bucks when its time - Lockett's guaranteed money dissolves at the end of the 2021 season so smart Lockett owners will be out by then.
Dynasty outlook year three or next year you should really see him being comfortable and dominating the league and a force for years to come.


Sunday, May 6, 2018

TE's WHO DO YOU TRUST by Alexander Haynes

I started a small twitter group a long time ago where we just sit back and dissect the NFL and translate our findings to fantasy football. We were just chatting about TE's and my good friend Alexander Haynes gave us his input. You can find him on twitter @ACLHaynes . Seriously, we were just talking TE's and this is what he wrote in the chat. I begged him to let me share with you all.
Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, Rob Gronkwoski (when healthy), and Jimmy Graham. I trust them. Going big on a tight end is risky in fantasy; I prefer just going for whoever falls and playing match ups each week. Now, from a non-fantasy evaluation, Ian Thomas is a rookie for the Carolina Panthers that you may want to keep an eye on in dynasty leagues, especially once Greg Olsen retires.
There may be a lot of love for rookie Hayden Hurst of the Baltimore Ravens because of where he was drafted (Round 1 – Pick 25), but they drafted the pure slot receiver TE in this class as well, Mark Andrews. Too many split targets and at this point in their careers, stating who will get the biggest share each week is difficult.
Real deep sleeper? Rookie Jordan Akins for the Houston Texans. Maybe, possibly something for fantasy, like him more in the Texans scheme for DeShaun Watson's development.
Rookie Chris Herdnon for the New York Jets may have a good season, but he has a lot of developing on the table. Discussing him is the perfect tie in to sleeper TE's - the Jets with Sam Darnold, Josh McCown, or even Todd Bowles taking snaps at quarterback will be using tight ends. The question comes to figuring out who their most targeted asset is. They did not resign Austin Seferian-Jenkins, opting for Clive Walford and Bucky Hodges in free agency and Herdnon in the draft.
No matter, this points out another problem I have with TEs moving forward. From a philosophical stand point, many NFL teams are utilizing multiple TE sets because of the pure variation which can be derived from these sets. The motion, deception, and extra blocking allowed from an extra tight end (either in-line or just off) will be a new wave of offensive play sets. Just watch the Kansas City Chiefs as an example - Andy Reid executes this with perfection. The implication for fantasy is the tight end drop off is getting wider and wider, with more of a weekly match up demand and grabbing the players who will be primarily used as pass receivers. My guess on who the best of the best will be this year? Robert Gronkowksi (health asterisk), Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, Jack Doyle, Zach Ertz, Delanie Walker, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Kyle Rudolph, Jesse James, George Kittle, and Hunter Henry. Written by guest writer - @ACLHaynes

Tuesday, December 29, 2015



What are they saying about your 2015 fantasy football campaign. 
"We win at the game of Fantasy Football"

What are they saying about your 2015 fantasy football campaign. Are they saying that you were making serious wavier moves? Are they saying that you did a heck of a draft? Are they saying he was always late to make a move? What are they saying?

We here at Fantasy Football 1 on 1 pull back the curtain and show you what folks are writing about our fantasy football play. 


There is no doubt that the Fantasy Typhoon is on the greatest championship repeat run in EFG history! The Typhoon is the first to play in three consecutive finals in the same league (EKL vs. EGL) in the EFG era! The Typhoon is the second manager to post back-to-back championship seasons (Big Boy, 2011-2012 EGL repeat champion). The Fantasy Typhoon joins Black Death (EKL) and The Franchise MYL (EGL) with the most finals appearance in the EFG era in one league with 3 finals games played. The Fantasy Typhoon (EKL vs. EGL) joins The White Shadow (EKL) big boy and the Franchise MYL (EGL) as two time champions of the same league in the EFG era. The highest scoring team in all of the EFG in 2015, the Fantasy Typhoon was a mere .81 points from setting a new EFG finals game scoring record with 428.10 points scored, vs. the current record of 428.90 points scored (Made You Look 2014 EKL finals)! There is no doubt that this is a top 30 all time team and will be added to the EFG records soon!
The EFG congratulates the Fantasy Typhoon on his stellar record setting season in defending the EKL vs. EGL Challenge championship and will be awarded an EFG Gold Championship Belt!


The Midwest team of Ellis, Cleavenger, Bryan Steimetz and Scott Atkins won the team title for the second straight year and all four members earn free entries into the Rotowire Online Championship in 2016. Great job guys.


Wednesday, August 26, 2015


Written by NOThinkingGuru 

In my last article, I talked about draft strategy. In this article, I’m going to talk about the most popular “money leagues.” These are the websites that offer a cash prize for finishing at the top of the league at the end of the season. Before I talk about these leagues, I want to clear up something in regards to my last article. You are not going to win your league with your first couple picks but you could definitely lose it. What I mean by this, is that your team must be balanced. If your 3 starting WRs are all high upside guys, then you only have a few weeks where all 3 players scores lots of points. Those are the weeks that you will most likely earn a win. The problem with upside guys is that these guys usually have lots of bad weeks but at the end of the season their total fantasy points are among the Top 20. Here is the problem— if at least 2 of your guys have a down week, then you will need other position players to step up. After you reach the playoffs in your league, do you really want a player in your lineup that could score either 30 points or 5 points? Here is where the balance of drafting comes in. The more volatile a player, the more you need to draft guys like Julian Edelman on your team. A guy that you know will get at least 7 targets a game. Edelman does not usually have many big weeks, but he usually does not have any bad weeks. This is why Antonio Brown is being drafted 1st in most leagues this year. Antonio Brown has caught at least 5 balls in every game for the past 2 years. He is a player that has no down weeks but has lots of big weeks. Nobody in the history of the NFL has ever done this before. If you do start your draft with Antonio Brown, then it will be easier to draft an upside (volatile) player/players later in your draft. There is only one Antonio Brown and steady-eddie guys like Edelman fall between Rounds 4 to 6. They are not sexy players, but like the NFL are necessary to maintaining drives. These guys will do the same thing for your team. They may never win you a week with a big game but they also will never lose you a game with zero points.

Now let’s talk about the different sites out there. First I’m going to talk about season long drafts. Which site fits you and how you have to draft differently based on the rules of the site. Let’s start with the sites I dislike the most and then move on to the ones I love. One of the most popular sites out there and the site that I highly recommend staying away from is CBS Sports/NFL. The reason I'm grouping these together is because of their similar prize structures, formats, and websites. I will get into the bad payout in another article (worst in the industry). Both of these leagues are standard NON-PPR formats. NFL is a 10 team league format and CBS is a 12 team. If for some reason you decide to draft in one of these sites, here is the strategy. The draft itself is flawed in that you have at most 15 rosters spots and only 9 starters. Since this is a NON-PPR(Points Per Reception) league, the player pool will be smaller since some players have little value in this format compared to a PPR league. Most people think backwards in this type of draft. They feel that since there are so few true bell cow RB’s that you must start you draft with one of them. This is not true. Don't win by following everybody else. You win by zagging when everybody else is zigging. If you listen to almost every website, podcast, and the fantasy channel on Sirius/XM they are all in agreement to take a RB. They say that WRs are not as important. I totally disagree. In a standard league, WRs will only get you points for TDs and total yards. If you look at last year’s final stats, how many WRs had over 1000 yards and over 10 TDs? I will tell you. Just 9. The RBs that did it was just 8 but you need to start 3 WRs and only 2 RBs. If everybody is fighting for RBs, then what are your chances of getting 2 of these players? But if you go the opposite direction, you should be able to get at least 2 of these WRs and possibly 3 of them. Besides, RBs get injured more often than WRs. So WRs are safer, and you have better chance in getting the elite. This does not mean that you go into a league and if WR’s start going off the board quickly that you do the same thing and grab WRs. This when you draft RBs, but this will rarely happen. If I get 3 WRs in this league to start for me every week, then all I need is to rotate RBs based on matchups and I only need 2 spots to do it. With a small bench, you could stream defenses because nobody can afford to keep a defense on their bench.

Yahoo has now entered the fantasy football prize payouts instead of just free leagues. The rules are basically the same as NFL/CBS and the format is also basically the same, so I will repeat what I just talked about in the previous paragraph. They are 10 team leagues but the only difference is a big one. Their payouts are 90%, whereas the CBS/NFL payouts are below 50%. One of the downsides is that there is no big overall prize. If you want to draft in a standard league, then this is a good place to start. The weekly and playoff strategy in this league will be different than the higher stake leagues. In a future article, I will talk about the playoffs and weekly pickups.
This is the craziest format out there, and because of this, you have a chance to really take advantage of the competition. First, let’s talk about the rules and format. 12-team leagues, 20-round serpentine draft, 13-week regular season based on total points, 6 teams advance to playoffs, H2H match-ups during week 14-16 playoffs, like most high-stakes leagues, this is a PPR league. Now for the crazy part— you need to start 1 QB, 1 Def, and 1 K, but also 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE). The first thing you might notice is that you only need to start 2 WRs, where most formats require 3 WRs. But with the 2 flex spots, you can start a maximum of 4. Also, on this site, they give your TEs an extra bonus for every catch. So instead of TEs getting 1 point per reception, they get 1.5 points per reception. So TEs gain a little more value. So you would think that since TEs are more valuable, then starting 3 TEs every week would be optimal. Last year, I entered this draft for the first time and made the mistake of trying to fill the flex with 2 extra RBs, since they are more consistent on a weekly basis. Also, if you could get 4 RBs and there are only 32 teams in the NFL, then you would screw the other players in the draft. Never, ever draft a player to screw other people in the draft. It almost always backfires. Yes, you will most likely screw the other player by grabbing a player that they really need, but in doing so, you end up hurting your own team, because if you only drafted a player based on screwing someone, then this most likely means that you did not need this player. I love when someone tries to screw another player, because now there 2 less teams to compete against. After drafting on this site multiple times this year, I have noticed that the 2 most common strategies are to grab at least one TE early or draft 2 or 3 RBs in the 1st 3 rounds. These strategies are so common that the WRs that normally go before Round 3 are still available in Round 4. In fact, all WRs are pushed back in this format. On most sites, you are forced to start 3 WRs and have an option to start a 4th in a flex spot. For this site, you only need to start 2 WRs, but can start a maximum of 4. So most people think that WR value has dropped, but because of those aforementioned common drafting strategies, all this does is give you more value at this position. Now, I don't recommend starting your draft with 4 WRs as this would force you to draft other positions when there is still value at WR. I want you to look at ADP for this site. RBs are still the most injury prone, and RBs are at risk to split carries. In the NFL, TE production is very fluky on a weekly basis and it is easier to use strength of schedule to stream your TEs on a weekly basis, and thereby you really don't need that stud TE. In today’s NFL, the WR is protected more than in the past and the ball is thrown more than any other time in the history of football. Going with 1 RB in the first 2 rounds is very important in this league due to scarcity, but RBs are the easiest position to find on waivers every week. So grabbing a 2nd RB early in the draft is not important. Taking a bunch of fliers late in the draft on RBs will be sufficient for your 2nd RB. You still must go after players that start every week on your fantasy team. Go ahead and zig while everybody else zags. This does not mean avoid TE/QB/RBs if you think that a particular player will be an every week starter. Just don't draft those positions early if you feel you can get similar production later in your draft. I love the top 2 QBs, but I will not draft them unless they fall to me in the 3rd round. I also like Gronk in this format, but I want a stud RB before I draft him, so I can draft 3 to 4 WRs in the following rounds. Just a heads up— Gronk is being drafted as a Top 5 player, so there is a less than a 1% chance thatI get him. So let’s say you follow this strategy and draft one RB and one WR with your first 2 picks. The next 3 to 4 rounds will still have every-week starters at the WR position. Go ahead and grab at least 3 WRs. Now you are set at WR and flex for the season. Now you can focus on getting players that have the potential to start for the other positions. You only need 1 QB/TE/RB. If my draft goes as planned, then I will end up with 3 QBs, 3 TEs, and 6 RBs. Since you already have 4 WRs and if they all have different bye weeks, then you just need some WRs in case your WRs get hurt. So you can go after the non-sexy players late in your draft. 

This website’s league consists of 20 man rosters and is a snake draft. They are 12 team leagues with a 13 week regular season. After Week 13, the top 4 finishers in each league advance to the championship rounds of Weeks 14, 15, and 16. No one-and-done playoff schedule. There is no trading allowed and the waiver wire consists of free agent bidding. Unlike most fantasy football sites, Scout uses an 11 man starting roster. You need to start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 DST, and 1 K every week. The big difference is the extra flex spot. This makes RB/WR/TE even more valuable. So this year since after Luck and Rodgers are drafted, the next 14 QB’s are very similar, so go ahead and wait on QB. This does not mean wait until the 11th QB is off the board until you draft a QB. This just means you should probably draft 2 of these guys. Just don't draft 2 QBs in a row unless you are in the 10th round or later. Let the draft dictate when to take a QB. If the Top 6 or7 QBs are off the board, then go ahead and get the 1st QB you want. Then wait until about Round 12 and grab your 2nd QB. I’m going to talk about trust again with QBs. If you decide that you love Cam Newton (for this site the QB only gets 4 points for a passing TD and 6 points for a rushing TD) then you need a player like Phillip Rivers. Cam Newton is an arm thrower and inconsistent on a weekly basis. Cam will likely end the season as a Top 10 QB, but you can't trust him every week to get you at least 20 points. The same goes for players like Sam Bradford (injury) and Tom Brady (suspension). The reason you must wait on QB after Luck and Rodgers is because you need to draft 8 RB/WR/TEs that start for you every week. Go look at an ADP report and you will see how big of drop off there is after Round 8. Almost everybody from Round 9 and onwards are just fliers. Yes, you hope one of these guys will turn out to be a starter every week, but the odds are against you. What I believe is the most important reason you draft in this league over a Yahoo league is the huge grand prizes. So you buy into this league and you win the league where you make more money than your buy-in. But now you enter the playoffs, where you have a chance to win life-changing money.

I already discussed the NFFC, which is my favorite league in the high stakes, but now I will explain why. The KDS system lets most people get their number 1 choice in draft order. If you don't get your 1st choice, it is usually very close. So no more wanting to draft at the beginning (1st pick) and getting the end (12th pick) or vice versa. The 2nd thing is the 3rd round reversal. The person who drafts last in the 1st round gets to draft 1st in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. This has been proven to even the odds. This site is also the most trusted of any of the sites. They have been around longer than anybody else and is owned by Stats (huge parent company).

Now that I have talked about strategy drafting in season-long drafts, I want to discuss the draft champion (or draft expert) types of drafts. These drafts consist of huge rosters of at least 24 rounds, all the way up to 35 rounds. These are best ball formats, where the most total points wins it all and there are no roster adjustments. After the draft is over, you do nothing. No waiver wire pickups, no setting weekly lineups, and no trades. The huge roster is to make sure that you have a starter to play every week even with injuries and bye weeks. If you decide to draft Peyton, Eli, and Brady, then whoever has the best week during any given week will be the player that will be your starter that week. I started doing this type of league years ago when I always made the wrong decision on who to start every week. 2 years ago I made the mistake of drafting Cam Newton in a regular season long draft. Every week I sat him he played great, and every week I started him, he did horrible. But if you would have played him in this format that year you would have had one of best QBs. All I’m going to say about this type of draft is to make sure you get 3 starting kickers, 3 decent defenses, and at least 3 QBs, but I would recommend 4. You can be more creative in this draft. I’m not a fan of zero RB theory, but the chances of it working in this format are so much better. Last thought on this draft—do not draft all upside players, even though it may sound like a great idea. I have seen the rosters of the prize winners in this type of draft and you would be surprised how many players are on their teams are boring or were considered out of favor by the analysts before the season.

Written by NOThinkingGuru