Is ADP a Law or a Map for Success?

Hello fantasy footballers it’s your favorite friend The Fantasy Typhoon here to drop you a little tips and nuggets to help make your 2012 fantasy football draft the best ever. 

I was on twitter the other day and I ran across one of my favorite friends Josh Moore (follow him at @4for4Josh on twitter ( CLICK HERE). We were going through the debate of whether or not an ADP sheet should be followed to the tee. I immediately said NO because ADP was designed to map out your fantasy draft plan and not a law that if broken you land in fantasy football jail. After all it’s just a player consensus of where other drafters have taken a player and definitely not a law. ADP when used properly is a weapon for you to know when to pull the trigger on your targeted players for your team at the last possible minute. 

The question was should you skip over Matty Ice (MATT RYAN ROTOWORLD CLICK HERE) in the sixth (his ADP CLICK HERE ) because it was too early to draft him. I replied that at 1pm on Sunday no one will care whether you took Matty at 5^th, 6^th or even or 4^th just as long as you got him in your line up. This immediately reminded me of my 2011 draft where Matt Stafford was being drafted at or around the 7^th round. The guy in front of me selected DeShaun Jackson and I quickly took Matt Stafford in the 6^th round and laughed. The remarks from my league mates were, “hey Staff is an injury risk” and “why are you reaching.” Well in the end Matt Stafford went on to be the #4 QB in our league and I won the championship from that pick. I used ADP to my advantage because I knew that if I did not pick him then my chances after that round were thin. Did I break the ADP law yep, sure did? Do I care NO, and you should not either. Once the film shows you who a player is believe it. If you have to pick a player a round or two early just to make sure that you secure that player on your roster then DO IT. 

I always try to make sure that in each and every draft I secure a Modified Spread or Ace/W Personnel QB because I know they have the scheme and OC’s blessing to spread the ball around to keep the offense on schedule. Let’s break it down. Have you ever wondered why the top five fantasy QB’s are always the same? Because the majorities are Modified Spread QB’s with talent. A modified spread QB needs to excel in 2 things to be a BEAST. 1. He has to be able to read defenses and 2. He needs to be accurate when throwing the ball. FYI Brees/Brady/Stafford/Fitzpatrick and now Matty Ice is all Modified Spread QB’s. Is this a coincidence? No it’s just scheme + talent + opportunity = top 6. (FYI Fitzpatrick can’t read defenses and is not accurate enough to excel to the top 6 level) 

Now Matty Ice played in a Traditional Pro Set Offense last year and finished right where they all finish, in the middle. Romo/Eli/Rivers are all Traditional Pro Set Offense QB’s. Is this another coincidence, No! It’s a combination of the HC, OC, player and scheme telling you who they are. With Matty Ice moving up to the Modified Spread from the Traditional Pro set his numbers will climb as well as Julio “Z” Roddy “X” and Tony “Y” Mike Mularkey tried to implement a spread offense from a traditional format. That’s why it didn’t work out right last year. So now that Matty Ice is in a passing system he should be the Matt Stafford of 2012. So if he is there in the 5^th round I am drafting him immediately. I may take him in the 4^th according to my draft slot. Remember, don’t tell the player who he is just watch the schemes and coaches and players and they will tell you exactly who they are. Matty Ice is telling us he’s ready to move up to be a top tier QB. Act accordingly.

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