Monday, April 22, 2013



HEAD COACH – Gary Kubiack


The Houston Texans are powered by 3 main players and for them to advance to the next level it can’t be that way. We can’t call them the triplets like we do the 90’s Cowboys team because they lack the firepower at QB. The Texans are a Modified West Coast Offense with Zone Blocking Scheme. The Texans perfect game is one where the defense gets at least 2+ turnovers and the running game can bring in 200+ yards. This is Texans football. A great playoff philosophy maximized during the regular season. This means that this team is built to run first then throw later. Everything is designed to go through the running back. So the running back has to be the most talented player on the team. They proved this when they paid Arian Foster the big bucks instead of relying on Ben Tate to carry the load. This style of offense and lack of WR2 talent forces them to utilize the TE which automatically makes him a viable play in this scheme. This makes the TE the WR2 in this system as long as they are missing the talented WR2 who can consistently beat 1-on-1 coverage. Owens Daniels is a nice play at the TE position on Sunday fantasy rosters. I don’t understand why this position is not filled as of yet because there are so many free agents who can meet this goal with their eyes closed. I surely expect to see a high round pick spent on a WR in this year’s rookie draft. That should make them a little more competitive during the 2013 playoffs. Let’s break down the 2013 Texans roster and uncover the fantasy football nuggets.

The QB is Matt Schaub who will not be targeted for our 2013 championship rosters. The reason why is that Arian Foster, and an aging Andre Johnson and Owens Daniels are not enough weapons to make Schaub worthy to start during the season. At best he can be utilized as a bye week filler and a good option when they are facing a Modified Spread Offense. This will make the Texans coaching staff have to throw a lot more than usual to compete. While Schaub is not called to do more the reason why has yet to be seen. Until I see more consistency on film we will leave him in back up QB status. We fully project to see 4,000+/27+ from Schuab this year. The low TD total due to Foster’s goal line dominance makes us limit our projections going forward. This is tier 3-4 production and should be a backup until further notice. 

Arian Foster is the starting running back for the Houston Texans. Foster will see a ton of carries and they will ride him through the season. Ben Tate is the handcuff and is usually injured at that. We expect to see Ben produce 700+/4+ We fully expect Foster to be the workhorse in 2013 and is a top tier running back for your rosters. While he carries the Texans let him carry your fantasy team as well. It is not a mystery that we here at Fantasy Football 1 on 1 are on record on the ADP podcast suggesting our subscribers to draft RB+RB+RB (PODCAST HERE) in the first three rounds and get an edge on the competition. Starting with Foster in the first round is an excellent play and will reap rewards for you in any league settings. He is also match up proof so there is no need to get on twitter and ask should you start Foster over player X this week. If you own Foster then start’em. Foster’s forecast for 2013 is 1,400+/10+ & 350+/10+ which is easily top tier 1 production in any settings.

The WR to own in this system is Andre Johnson. He may very well be the only receiver once again in 2013. He will be the target monster at the WR position. While we love his fantasy worth, we will bypass him on draft day and secure a RB in his stead if he goes in the first three rounds. While Matt Shaub is needed to throw the occasional deep ball on the play action roll out which is designed for the WR2. The problem is that the Texans do not have a talented WR2 and we expect them to address this early in the 2013 draft. Andre Johnson is getting older and it’s time to have his successor on the roster. We already know that whoever is drafted and no matter how much talent they possess they will be a number 2 receiver behind Andre Johnson. This means targets will be limited until they can be trusted. This is good news for dynasty and bad news for redrafters. We will have to watch the rookie draft this weekend and come back reevaluate this situation. We fully expect to see Andre Johnson produce 1,250+/5+ which is round 2-3 production. If he falls to the fourth round quickly pick him up and laugh quietly to yourself. You are about to DOMINATE.

The TE is Owens Daniels who is like I said earlier the WR2 for the Texans. As long as that hole is open he is your man. He is an excellent TE who can consistently get open and also warrant a couple of red zone looks. We have better options for TE as outlined in our 2013 ALL 32 predraft kit (ORDER HERE) but if you miss out he is an excellent alternative. We look for a steady 700+/5+ TE production from Owens at seasons end. 


I Follow Beat Writer John McClain for All of my Texans Training Camp and Team News

As we stated earlier in the above break down we fully expect to see an early round WR addition for the Houston Texans. While that is good news for dynasty owners it’s not that great of news for redraft. The Texans like to see their WR’s prove themselves before supreme playing time and targets are warranted. The playbook is simple enough for a rookie to grasp and is not as diverse as the Schottenheimer's playbook used in St. Louis. (That’s the Brain Quick holdup) So keep your ears open to the beat writers  for more updates during the fantasy season.

                   FANTASY DRAFT WATCH 2013    

Matt Schuab - 4,000+/27+ - Not worth a starter but an excellent back up.

Arian Foster – 1,400+/10+ & 350+/3+ - ABSOLUTELY!

Ben Tate - Ben Tate - 700+/4+ - Definitely serviceable as Foster’s handcuff in the late rounds.

Andre Johnson - 1,250+/5+ - Too high let your league mates take him while you secure your backfield unless he falls to the fourth round.
Owens Daniels – 700+/5+ – Only if you miss the suggested TE’s suggested in the 2013 ALL 32 Draft Kit.
PK -  Not Yet Rated

DST – Worth a last round or next to last round pick up in all fantasy formats.  

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Tuesday, April 9, 2013



From the desk of “THE FANTASY TYPHOON”

 I have been jotting down a couple of things that I have been noticing in one of my dynasty leagues. I thought I would take the time to try and help you during the off season.

EVALUATION - Each off season after free agency is over evaluate each and every player on your roster and make a plan for the upcoming year.  You need to have a plan for your roster so you can have some sense of direction. This will help keep you focused and disciplined from making a bad trade. Do a 3 year plan for each player and stick to it.

NEVER TRADE – Sift through your roster and mark down which players are your NEVER trade players for the upcoming year and who can be put on the block. Mark your core players and never trade them no matter what. Stick to your decision and don't waiver.

BUNDLE POSITION TRADES - I use this tactic when I want to upgrade a position. Example - I own Willis McGahee and Shonn Greene in one of my leagues. I will package them together in a trade proposal to upgrade at the RB position. This method gives me a better player and also makes extra roster space to make a waiver wire move or be able to hold a future rookie pick a little longer. Please be advised that this is only effective if you bundle a position and trade for that SAME position. Bundle RB+RB=Upgraded RB - not RB+RB=WR

NEVER TRADE PRODUCTION FOR HOPE – Try not to trade a player that is performing at an elite level just so you can secure a future over hyped player. Example - someone traded Arian Foster in the 2011 rookie draft for the 1.1 rookie pick. They guy ended up getting Mark Ingram with that 1.1. NEVER trade what you can see for what you can't see.

REBUILDING OR COMPETING – In dynasty you are doing only two things. You are either competing or rebuilding. It’s as simple as that. Which one are you? Here's the test. If you made the playoffs the year before then you are competing and are 1-2 trades away from being champ. If you did not make the playoffs then you are rebuilding and you are 3-6 trades away.

ALWAYS COUNTER - If you get a trade offer that you don't like ALWAYS counter. You counter because you are in negotiations with the other owner. You are setting the value. Remember that value is what the other person is willing to pay for it. Rankings don’t dictate value. You could easily have a homer that has a higher value because he likes that player more than most. Also a counter will see if they are serious about that player or not. If they reply back then you have a willing participant if they decline with no comment then they were not serious in the first place.

YOU ARE A PROFESSIONAL GM - Run your team like the pros do. Mimic their trading styles. Wait 2 weeks after free agency has begun to make your blockbuster trade just like the pros (especially if you are rebuilding). The off season is the best time to try and put together a value deal. A lot of twitter speculation and smoke screens will be in play and if you know your sets and schemes you can use this to your advantage.

I hope these tips and tricks help you to dominate your dynasty leagues. It’s almost time for dynasty rookie drafts to kick off and I wish you the best of luck.

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