Thursday, August 13, 2015
Fantasy Football Draft Construction or Destruction Part 2
I understand that in FF the quarterbacks puts up the most points. But if you look at your scoring system leaders from last year it will show that there are at least 10 quarterbacks putting up more points than any other position. So why take Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers in your 1st rd when you can get a Peyton Manning in round 5 or a Matthew Stafford in round 10 and still get a guy that is putting up more points than any other position.
In FF you only have to build an 8 man roster (in most leagues). I’m not including kickers or defenses since they are one of your last picks. So let’s use the NFFC (National Fantasy Football Championship) roster as an example. Your starting roster consists of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE). That is 8 players for those of you who want to check my math. The ultimate goal is to draft 8 guys that start each every week. I don't want a decision to make on a weekly basis. The NFL wants to do the same thing in their draft. They don't draft a guy thinking that this guy might be good for a couple of weeks. They don't draft guys who either hits a home-run or strikes out. (Sorry for the baseball analogy) A strikeout guy in the NFL is a player who had made questionable decisions thus far in their life or the guy with lots of injuries in college. Most NFL teams are avoiding these guys or moving them back on their draft board. You as a fantasy football player should do the same thing.
I still want you to have other lists but not just one cheat sheet. I want you to have an ADP (Average Draft Position) list based on your scoring settings along with your cheat sheet. In the NFFC that is easy since they offer one for you. The NFFC will not only show the players ADP but it will also show you the earliest and latest that player has gone. Why is this so important? Because you can now practice building your team before you even draft. So go ahead and mark off the guys that you see as every week starters no matter the match up. The first 4-5 rounds are easy but after round 5 things become more difficult. What I want you to understand is that after round 5 there are still a lot of TE/QBs still available but the RB/WRs are just players with the potential to spot start every week. They are not locks to start every week. Don't get me wrong, there are lots of guys to like in the later rounds who I think will be in my starting lineup every week. But don't get this confused with players I think will start and players I know will start. There is a reason these guys are going later in the draft. ADP is Average Draft Position but what it should be called is Draft Ranking Based on trust level of producing every week.
ADP @ Fantasy Calculator
NFFC SIGN UP
I trust everybody in the 1st rd to produce every week except Odell Beckham Jr and Julio Jones. I don't trust either one of them to stay healthy each and every week and that is why I have not drafted either one of them this year. (20 NFFC drafts so far) That does not mean I won't draft them it means that I am gravitating to that steady player first. In the 2nd round I trust most these players to play every week and produce but at a lesser level. As you look at the ADP, the top guys on list are the most trust worthy and should produce the most points. The farther you go down the list the less trust worthy they are to produce. (To explain what I mean by produce - it means at least 10 points every week with upside to score more than that). Now that you have done this practice draft we can analyze your strategies in the next session. Yes, I said strategies with a (s) based on your draft and you have to be open to switching your strategy on the fly like the true champion that you are. Stay tuned!