Hello fantasy footballers it’s me again THE FANTASY TYPHOON here to bring you another informative article to help you dominate your 2013 fantasy football leagues. A major misconception in fantasy football is once a player leaves a team and signs with a new team his old team stats should follow him. Not so fast folks. We tend to try and project his new value with old data. We need to step back and clear our minds and then look at the new situation and the player’s talents and then form a new projection. Actually we should do this for each and every player, each and every season, even if they do not switch teams. Sometimes the player may be asked to perform different tasks which could lead to more or less fantasy production. Also the coaches can change a scheme which could tragically change the fantasy outlook for guys that are staying with the same team. With a new year comes new projections based on talent, scheme, and coaches tendencies to help dodge the pitfalls of using old data, seeing through the mini-camp hype, and keeps guessing to a minimum. My motto: ‘Never tell a player who he is let him tell you”
Well with all of the major moves that have taken place in 2013. I have compiled a list of guys and what I project going forward in the 2013 season with the new team. I will also tell you if you should draft them and when you should pull the trigger. This should help you prepare for your 2013 drafts. (ORDER HERE) Let’s get it.
Carson Palmer – Was Traditional Pro now Modified Spread. Palmer has always been a QB that’s never been scared to throw the ball into tight windows. Double teams mean nothing to Palmer. This was a negative trait in the past but it will be a plus for the Cardinals. Larry Fitzgerald has been dying for a QB who is not afraid to throw him the ball even when he is doubled. Also head coach Bruce Arians will be moving Fitzgerald all over the place just like he did Reggie Wayne last year. They are looking to exploit the defense and find the mismatch. This is good news for Palmer and Larry. Palmer was labeled a garbage time type of QB and captain TE check down last year due to the fourth quarter holes the Raiders found themselves in. While I can’t project if the Cardinals will play from behind a lot, I do know that Palmer is far from a check down QB. The receivers in Arizona are a huge upgrade for Palmer compared to the ones in Oakland. Also he is now in a spread offense and they are planning on getting the ball down field through the air. I project an excellent year for Palmer and Larry. EXCELLENT QB 2 (maybe 1) and can be drafted in late rounds but in 2 QB leagues he could be a vital piece to winning the trophy in 2013
Alex Smith – Was Modified West Coast now Modified West Coast. Alex Smith was dubbed the term “game manager” during his tenure in San Francisco. He was allowed to hand the ball of to Frank Gore and then pass dings and dunks to the receivers to keep the chains moving. We often misunderstand that this is how the Modified West Coast Offense was intended to operate. Alex Smith is a former first round pick so he will continue to keep getting a chance to start in the NFL because each coach believes that they have what it takes to pull the talent out of him. Alex Smith will be given a little more responsibility in Kansas City than he received in San Fran. While this is good news for him personally it’s not what we are looking for in fantasy. Alex will have his good games but he will also have subpar games due to the usage of Jamaal Charles. This is Jamaal Charles team so Alex can be overlooked in 2013. Alex is an upgrade over the departing Matt Cassell who held this team hostage last year. Alex will be an excellent TV QB but it may not translate to fantasy production. Bypass Alex Smith this year or pick up very late as a QB3 where league rules merit this type of scoring settings.
Reggie Bush – Was Modified West Coast now Modified Spread. I love the addition of Reggie Bush to the Detroit Lions. Reggie’s game was tailor made for a Modified Spread Offense. This could very well be one of Reggie’s most productive years in the league. He’s explosive enough to hit the outside while patient enough to grind between the tackles. This should all but destroy the value of Mikel Leshoure. Bush will be utilized heavy in the passing game as well. Detroit is a very kind offense to a running back because the defense will be set on slowing down Calvin Johnson which will leave wide open lanes for Bush. I have been consistently landing Bush in my ppr mocks in the 3rd round which is an excellent place to pick him up. I do expect that once the training camp buzz and preseason games begin to reveal what was stated above his value will leap to the second round and that’s still OK with me. Picking up Bush in the third round is a steal but he’s definitely worth a second round pick if you feel that you must have him in 2013.
Ahmad Bradshaw - Was Traditional Pro now Modified West Coast I love the talent of Ahmad Bradshaw but my only concern is the sore foot. While I rarely try to predict injury on a player Bradshaw does bring some concern to the forefront. Bradshaw is a seasoned running back with 2 super bowl rings in his trophy case. Make no mistake when healthy Bradshaw will control this backfield. They told us what they thought of Ballard by signing Bradshaw to a one year deal. When I watch the tape on Ballard he needs to learn patience and vision which is what Bradshaw will teach him before he leaves next year. Bradshaw is a tough back that brings fire to the sidelines and locker room. He will be missed by the Giants this year. Bradshaw is being drafted in round 5 which is an excellent spot to pick him up. You could opt to use the RB + RB then go WR+QB and then pick up Bradshaw as your RB3 and still yield a strong fantasy football core.
Steven Jackson – Was Traditional Pro now Modified Spread. I love the fit for Steven with the Atlanta Falcons offense. It’s a perfect fit for both parties. Steven Jackson has found himself in a perfect storm for running backs in 2013. 1. He has all of the red zone looks that the Falcons will encounter from a running back perspective. 2. He will be used to burn the clock out and run between the tackles when the game is on ice. 3. He will be used extensively in the passing game which will give him a gold star in ppr leagues. It’s evident that some teams employ a committee backfield to make one Steven Jackson. Once I found out he went to the Falcons during the free agency frenzy I immediately picked him up in my dynasty league back in March. Steven Jackson is going off of the board in the second round and I will take him there every time. I will also take him at the turn in 10-14 team leagues as well.
Chris Ivory - Was Modified Spread now Traditional Pro. I have been shouting for years that Chris Ivory needed to be freed from that running back black hole in New Orleans. He was not a fit for what they were trying to accomplish there. They are a throwing team and needed their bell cow back to be able to catch and run between the tackles. Ivory’s hands are definitely not his strong suit. I was watching his tape the other day preparing for this article and I found out that if you placed Ivory in a Seahawks jersey and gave him the ball he would look just like Marshawn Lynch. Ivory runs angry and attacks defenders like he plays defense. He’s definitely not scared of contact. There is a lot of carries to be had in NY. Ivory is just what NY has been looking for to replace the plodding Shonn Greene. Ivory should have a solid year if he can stay healthy. Chris Ivory is going in the 4th round and is a perfect pick for standard leagues before ppr. He will get the red zone carries which is a plus.
I hope this information helps you see the big picture and assist you on your draft day decisions.
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