Thursday, August 13, 2015

Fantasy Football Draft Construction or Destruction Part 1

 by NOThinkingGuru

Part 2 
Part 3 
Part 4
 
 When I began writing this four part series the first thing I wanted you to understand is that the construction of a team, in the draft room, is the most important part of playing fantasy football. If you mess up your draft, then you will have to be pretty lucky in the season by picking up the right guys at the right time on the waiver wire to be successful. Fantasy Football requires some luck but if it was all luck then why are the top players in the world at the top every year. If you want luck then go buy a lotto ticket. 


Now for the destruction. I want to destroy the theories out there on how you have to draft your team. Whether its zero running back theory, valued based drafting, early RB heavy drafting, stud QB strategy, TE strategy, and WR heavy strategy. If you go into a draft with the plan to use a specific strategy then you have already lost. Before I go into why, let me explain the difference between a NFL team and a fantasy football team. Let’s start with the NFL. 

The NFL has been around since 1920. Every coach, general manager, and everybody in the front office gets paid a boat load of money for being great at building a team. If you don't excel in the NFL at your specialized field then you will be replaced. Each of these people have access to many tools to help them succeed. Now let’s talk about your fantasy football team. How long have you been playing fantasy football? Most people will say, just couple of years. People who play fantasy football work alone on their team and if they have a partner helping them, then it is still usually just one person doing most of the work. Plus you don't have the resources that the NFL has. Yes, we have the Internet but there is so much misinformation out there. Okay what I’m basically saying is that you’re screwed if you had to do a fantasy football draft against an actual NFL owner. But you’re not playing against an NFL owner. You are playing against somebody who has the same issues as you. Or are you? I’m going to teach how to draft like a NFL owner and how to use the same type information and strategies that they use. I know some of you are thinking that some NFL owners are idiots and I agree. So let’s just use a team with a proven track record and see how they draft. The team I’m talking about is the Baltimore Ravens and the GM Ozzie Newsome. 

This guy is not only the GM for the Ravens but also a Pro Football Hall of Fame inductee. Why this guy is better than almost everybody else is because of the way he drafts. The Ravens have not made a pick in the 1st rd between pick 1-9 since 1997. And unlike fantasy football if get the 20th pick in the 1st rd that is your spot in every round. Fantasy football is more forgiving. The person that picks last in the 1st rd gets the 1st pick in the 2nd rd. I bet that the Super Bowl Champs would love that rule. So as a GM in the NFL drafting to reload your team is much harder. Most people think that Ozzie uses best player available to make his picks. But if he did that then why not use a computer to make the pick. Ozzie does not create the team's draft board rankings. He had a team doing that. A lot of fantasy owners out there are just like computers when they make their picks. They have their cheat sheets and when it is their turn they just selected the next guy on their sheet. This does not mean that this will not work. It just means it requires more luck. I have never been lucky and don't expect to win anything based on luck. I worked hard to get where I am at today. I’m guessing the reason that you are reading this article is because you want to outsmart your opponent. It is such a great feeling to play in a competition and outsmart your opponent. After the Ravens create their rankings then they adjust them based on need and scarcity. If there is a position that they really need then they are more willing to target that guy in the 1st three rounds. If they need a RB but there are lots of RB's they like and feel they can get one of them in a later round then they will wait. If you look at this year’s NFL draft the Tennessee Titans had the 2nd pick. The reason they had the second pick was because as a team they had a lot of holes that needed filling. Yes, QB was one of those holes and yes I do believe that Marcus Mariotta who they selected with that pick will have a long career in the NFL as a starter. The problem I have and I believe Ozzie Newsome would have done is traded that pick. Reports came out that the Titans received many trade offers but none of the offers was worth the #2 slot. I say BS. A NFL team has 53 man roster and I would have taken the best offer. To build a whole team you can't just fill one roster spot. With all the picks they would have received they could have built a more complete team. But I have a feeling that the Titans will get a 2nd chance next year to make the same decision.
When building a fantasy football team you have to make the same kinds of decisions

 Part 2
 Part 3 
 Part 4


1 comment:

  1. These are some great article series. I usually don't have a strategy when picking. I just watch sites like https://www.fantasysportsdaily.com/ and follow some pick suggestions. Overall i have been doing Ok.

    ReplyDelete