THE
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Head
Coach – Andy Reid
Offensive
Coordinator - Doug Pederson
The Kansas City Chiefs just missed the playoffs in 2014 and
it was due to numerous problems. You could easily blame it on the quarterback
but that is too shallow and we here at Fantasy Football 1 on 1 go deeper than
the obvious scenario. We dig deep under the surface to find true NFL nuggets
and then translate them easily to fantasy (dynasty, keeper, redraft) to help
you DOMINATE your competition.
This offense started red hot week 2 (after a week 1 Jamaal
diss against the Titans Sep 7 Final (L) 26-10 Jamaal - 7 rushes for 19). They
won and lost some games then they came out of the week 6 bye heavily dependent
on Jamaal. KC rattled off 5 straight wins until defenses started to jump the WR’s
routes and disrespect the whole offense. After that Jamaal never saw a 20 game
carry again but to make matters worse for Jamaal, after week 12 no more than 10
and it was clear Andy Reid reverted back to week 1 tactics and demoted Jamaal’s
carries and moved the ball with other players. You remember, Andy Reid would
say week in and week out at his pressers that he would vow to get Jamaal
Charles more touches the following week but he seemed to limit him just like he
did week 1. It was as the off season mission was to limit Jamaal’s role in this
offense and let other players emerge. This is why we preach learning the
coaching styles and systems and if you stick around we will teach you every one
of them. As I always say “learning real NFL schemes keep you from playing
fantasy football on Sunday’s.” When I say fantasy (in this sense only) I mean
playing a dream game in your head that will never happen on the football field
and will get you DOMINATED on.
This team is built on speed and if you plan on drafting or
keeping a player from this offense then they better have world class speed.
This team relied on bubble screens, short crossers, trips and the jet sweep to
get the ball into its fastest player’s hands in 2014. The philosophy here is to
get the ball out quick and let the receiver make a person miss and use their
speed and elusiveness to get up field. While these concepts helped mask the QB’s
deficiencies they drastically demoted the wide receivers role. The whole wide
receiving section did NOT record a touchdown during the whole 2014 NFL season. The
scheme calls for Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis or Kelce inside the red zone for
most of the touches. However I did see Dwayne Bowe (and other WR’s) tackled
inside the 5 yard line numerous times but that’s just downright unacceptable in
real life and for fantasy.
The core of this offense and pecking order for 2015 is as
follows - Charles, Kelce, DT, Bowe and Kniles (unless Charles is injured). This
is why we are one of the leaders in fantasy because we break down the schemes
and watch the film and they tells us where the players are going to evolve
from. Remember talent comes BEFORE stats not vice versa as the media suggests.
You must retrain your thought process to get out in front of your competition
and start making moves weeks and months earlier than the media. This
automatically makes you a serious fantasy football weapon to be reckoned with.
This team went from a Traditional Pro style to a Modified
West Coast to an Ace/W Personnel Offensive scheme in the past three years. When
changes like this take place the coaching staff is excellent because they are
adapting the scheme to fit or best utilize the talent on the roster. Coaching
staffs like this are few and hard to find.
Let’s
meet the offense
12
personnel is the Base Offense for the Kansas City Chiefs
X LT LG C RG RT TE1 TE2 Z
QB
1 RB
As you can see this is what’s called 12 personnel. This is
because you have 1 RB and 2 TE’s in the formation. They also used 21, 13 and 11
but 12 is the base formation for the KC offense in 2015 and going forward. This
formation gives us a mountain of NFL nuggets to dissect and find the positions
that stack up the fantasy numbers which translate to more wins for you and more
smack talk to disburse.
Now let’s place some names to the letters above and get to
work.
THE
SCOUTING REPORT
THE
OFFENSIVE LINE - The
offensive line consists of a very good young core of players who have been
moved around a bit but seem to have found their home for the 2015 season. They
have a fairly deep unit and I would label them as (Excellent – Good – Average) GOOD. This offensive line mainly saw the
bulk of its letdown when KC were behind and defenses started using the delayed
blitz. The center missed some protection calls but this is hard to overcome
because it happened to Dallas and numerous other O Lines at some point during
the season.
LT
Eric Fisher # 72 is entering his third year with the Chiefs.
While he played more on the right side last season he is back home on the left
side in 2015. He settled in by week 9 in 2014 and looked a lot better as the
season progressed. We all know that the LT is out on an island all alone and
cannot get help. He looked good against the Titans and even better against the
Patriots. This is what you want from any young player is to see growth. Let’s
hope his progress continues.
LG
Mike McGlynn # 75 has over taken Jeffrey Linkenbach for the
starting gig. He seemed a little more fluid than Jeffery and has the speed to
assist in the power run game. He is a player that will help Jamaal continue his
dominance in 2015.
C Rodney
Hudson # 61 He’s a 08 4th round pick and nothing
like watching a designed run to the weak side with Knile Davis and the O Line
has to man up and put a hat on a hat. While the play is going in slow motion
one by one you see the defenders being dragged or pushed to the ground. The O
Line wins and Knile is not touched until 47 yards down the field.
RG
Zach Fulton #73 is a 14 6th round draft pick and is
playing well for where he was picked. Immediately inserted into the starting lineup
and is holding his own in most cases. If I had to pick a weak link in this
Offensive it would be Zach.
LT Ryan
Harris #68 is a 07 3rd round draft pick to the Denver
Broncos. He gets beat at times but is good at setting the edge for the RB to
run around. He uses his arms OK and always tries to make first contact with his arms extended which is
what we want to see.
THE
QUARTER BACK
ALEX SMITH Alex Smith is a decent
starting QB but his skill set fits more into the two QB settings. He holds the
ball too long at times and takes unnecessary sacks. While he does have decent
speed and can gain yardage with his legs we would like to see him use his check
downs a little more frequently. He pre determines where he is going with the
ball pre snap and is too stubborn to take what the defense is giving him post
snap. He has an average arm (which is not a gun) and can make the deep throws
he just does not make them with accuracy. Really needs to develop his deep game
during the off season. His main flaw is not being able to throw a WR open (anticipation)
which demolishes him from being a top tier QB in the NFL. If the receiver does
not get separation he will not throw it he either pulls and runs or takes the
sack. You rarely see back shoulder and fades in this offense. This one area
demotes him from being inserted into my draft plan unless we are in two QB
settings.
THE
RUNNING BACKS
JAMAAL
CHARLES #25 let’s get this clear and out in the open.
Jamaal Charles is one of the most elusive and speedy RB’s in the NFL. Charles
is rare because he has big back skills instilled into a smaller backs frame. He
can make you miss and go to the house on any given play but at the same time
drain the clock when a lead is obtained. My concern is his usage in 2015. One
huge plus for Charles is when they get near the red zone he is getting a shot
at scoring the TD first but the threat of Knile Davis is a little bigger than
what meets the eye. Charles can break tackles, make you miss, out run you,
catch, pass protect, bang in between the A,B gaps, and do everything you wish a
first round RB could do.
We are concerned about the coaches’ view of him
getting nicked and scraped over the course of a 16 game season. Also his age is
coming into play for dynasty/keeper settings. Please don’t get us wrong we love
Charles’s overall talent but we are shying away from him this season in redraft
with a top 5 draft pick in 2015. There are younger horses that are invading the
NFL and fantasy that can carry more of the load for you with your early draft
picks. It’s time to start putting Jamaal Charles on the block in dynasty keeper
settings and see what you can get before you get stuck. You can last one more
season but by the start of the 2016 season he should be off of your roster.
Hear me now and believe me later.
Knile
Davis #34 Knile is a MUST add to your roster in any settings. We
here at Fantasy Football 1 on 1 think Knile is a better back for this system
than Jamaal Charles. He runs with a low pad level and is not afraid to make
contact with his defenders. He has the necessary speed to get downfield. His
vision is decent and he can catch the ball but mostly because he is younger and stronger. He
is more of a straight line runner and does not possess nothing close to the
elusiveness that Charles brings to the game.
In dynasty setting within the next
three years we foresee Charles backing up Kniles on third down duties. If you
notice when Charles is out of the game Kniles gets a ton of work even between
the tackles and a lot for ppr settings. The coaching staff seems a little more
in line
and comfortable with letting the whole offense flow through Kniles rather than Charles as
early as 2016. Look for Kniles to gain more carries subtly because father time
is undefeated. While Charles is not slowing down on film and he was
underutilized under Todd Haley for a couple of seasons, its coming and when it happens it will be
quick. Make sure you are on the right side of the coin in dynasty keeper
leagues.
De’Anthony
Thomas #13 this guy maybe one of the main reasons as to why we here
Fantasy Football 1 on 1 preach and teach the concepts, and schemes over stats as
we do. As you remember in the introduction that this offense is built for
speed, short bubble screens, and plays designed to get people in space to make
a defender miss. What better player to go and pick up right now in your dynasty
and keeper leagues than De’Anthony Thomas. His skill set fits perfectly into
what Andy and Doug are trying to accomplish in 2015 and forward. DT was injured
for most of the beginning of the season so he missed out on a lot of plays and
acclimation to the speed of the NFL. Once he got on the field you could see the
coaching staff slowly designing and making him a vital part of the game plan.
Another huge bonus is that DT can carry RB and WR designation in your league
settings. What we don’t like is the small frame which will limit his A, B gap
carries to no more than 7 but he will score fantasy points in ppr settings. He
also offers well needed flexibility when setting rosters for Sunday dominance.
The
core of this offense and pecking order for 2015 is as follows - Charles, Kelce,
DT, Bowe and Kniles (unless Charles is injured). This is why we are one of the
leaders in fantasy because we break down the schemes and watch the film and
they tells us where the players are going to evolve from. Remember talent comes
BEFORE stats. You must retrain your thought process to get out in front of your
competition and start making moves weeks and months earlier than the media.
THE
WIDE RECIEVERS
THE
TIGHT ENDS
TRAVIS
KELCE This guy is big and fast and most folks in the media
compare him to Gronk. I do not make that comparison because Kelce is too fast
and Gronk is too physical. Kelce is more of a finesse TE who moves to ALL
positions from play to play. This is a MUST if I am going to invest a value pick
on a TE in 2015 in redraft settings. There are about 5 TE’s that can play the U,
Y, X, Z, FB and Kelce makes the grade. He catches with his hands and fully understands
route concepts. He has a long stride and sees the field well and looks slower
on film than in game play. Don’t get confused and be “that guy.” We would like
to see him be tad bit more physical and harder to tackle and fight for
opportunities on the field and also cut down on the fumbles in 2015.
He also still has a little more growing to do and fits
perfectly into the make a player miss scheme that KC runs. He has a big red
zone radius which I have yet to see Andy Reid take full advantage of yet which
is a huge plus. This guy is a MUST
for dynasty keeper buffs. He very rarely blocks and I frequently see
the media calling for Fasano to go elsewhere. These folks don’t understand the
power of the 12, 13 formations which free up Kelce to be more of a WR than an
inline blocking TE. This is definitely what you want so please don’t let this
confuse you as well. We here at Fantasy Football 1 on 1 fully expect to see
Kelce go over 1,000 receiving yards in 2015 and finish top 6 in fantasy.
THE
KICKER –
THE
DEFENSE -
THE RETURN
TEAM
– The return team is excellent and help make this DST a top option in return yardage
leagues. Kniles Davis, Frankie Hammonds and De’Anthony Thomas combine to bring
elusiveness and explosion to special teams. They rarely take a knee even on
deep kicks. They almost always bring them out for good yardage. Also the punt
and kick return with De’Anthony and Knile can go to the house at any time.
THE
2015 ROOKIES –
FINAL
THOUGHTS FOR FANTASY -
Offensive Depth Chart
POSITION STARTER 2nd 3rd 4th
X WR Dwayne Bowe
Albert Wilson Frankie Hammond
TE Y Anthony
Fasano Y/U Travis Kelce Richard Gordon
LT Eric Fisher Ryan Harris
LG Mike McGlynn Jeffrey Linkenbach
C Rodney
Hudson Eric Kush
RG Zach Fulton Laurent Duvernay-Tardif
RT Ryan Harris Donald Stephenson
Z WR Donnie Avery Jason
Avant De'Anthony Thomas
QB Alex Smith O Chase Daniel Aaron
Murray
FB Anthony
Sherman
RB Jamaal Charles Knile
Davis De'Anthony Thomas Charcandrick
West
SAMPLE
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