THE DEMISE IS WELKER NOT DECKER

"SHHHH"  "GO STEAL HIM"

I don't think no other players stock has dropped as much this week as Eric Decker's. The signing of Wes Welker has all the "experts" rushing to judgement saying that Decker is in for a HUGE decline. This is why I always teach "Don't tell the player who he is let the coaches, the scheme and the talent tell you. Here is why I am bold enough to go against the grain. This is why and how I help lead you to championships year in and year out. 

#1 REASON "WELKER IS SWITCHING OFFENSES NOT DECKER"

Let's chop it up. 

WELKER IS SWITCHING OFFENSES NOT DECKER - The addition of Welker to the "W" or slot position makes this ACE/W Personnel offense the exact same offense that was producing big stats in Indy.  All you have to do is just think of Welker in Austin Collie's old role. The difference is that Brady runs the Modified Spread with 2 TE sets with no huddle option. This is why if healthy, the addition of Danny Amendola makes him more fantasy relevant this year than Welker. (Don't sleep on Dola folks) The "W" or slot position in NE calls for more plays and nothing more nothing less. I'm not saying that Welker is not talented I'm just saying he's moving to a different offense or scheme.  Welkers position in Denver is the 2cnd 3rd and sometimes 4th read whereas in NE he was the first. Demaryius Thomas is the WR1 in Denver but in N.E. Welker was the #1. You see the difference. In Indy/Denver the ball is passed around a lot more evenly than in N.E. Now being that Indy and Denver run the same sets and schemes Welker's role will be reduced not his talent. This is why it's so important to know your sets and schemes instead of just speculating and making gut decisions. Welker is no longer a 100 catch WR in this system. We just have to face these facts. Demaryius Thomas should be your first WR pick from this offense in this years draft along with Decker second and Welker a close third. If anyone's stock is down it's Welker's not Decker's. Decker is in the ("Z") same old Indy offense that Pierre Garcon manned before he went to the Redskins. It is a 60/80 catch position year in and year out. It's all because Peyton Manning's super human ability to read the DST before the snap and this is how this offense stays on schedule. The coaches, schemes, and sets have spoken. Thomas is on line for a 75/100+ catch year ("X" Wayne) , while Decker is set for 60/80 ("Z" Garcon) and Welker is on pace for 50/70 ("W" Collie). Welker's stock went down once they announced the trade. I strongly advise my dynasty/redraft comrades to act accordingly. 

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ROUND 2 REDRAFT TALENT " MR JACKSON'

  

THE FANTASY TYPHOON 

OFF SEASON FILES

ROUND 2 DRAFT TALENTS

OF

'MR. JACKSON"

Please remember that when #1 pick in the draft type talent meets opportunity, in the right scheme, you ALWAYS get excellent results.  

-The Coaches and Schemes - 

 OC Dirk Koetter has found his new toy in Steven Jackson. Steven is coming to a Modified Spread Offense from a Tradition Pro Offense in St. Louis. The difference is that in ATL he will be able to get that ball in space or out of the backfield and the offense will create more running lanes because of the spread formation and 3 WR sets. This means that there will be less defenders crowding the box like it was back in ST. Louis. Before the departure of Michael Turner they never really could get that offense clicking like they wanted due to to Michael Turners one dimensional play. They had to use 2 backs to make a whole and that's why JaQuizz Rodgers got extra time. Now that Steve is in town he is perfect for the scheme. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and he can also mash up the middle and hit the outside. Steven will get the bulk of the carries and he has more than proven that he can still tote the rock at a very high level. Steven Jackson is about to have a career year in ATL.

 -The Opportunity-

 In the Modified Spread Offense there is no room for a fullback due to the extra receiver on the field. JaQuizz nor Jason Snelling has never proven themselves to be worthy of the spot outright. Now with Jackson in the mix they can run the offense full throttle. Like I said earlier when Turner was there they had to come out of the Spread Offense and line up in Base which tipped the defense off to stack the box and stop the run. Well not anymore because a new back has showed up on the scene. Now in Base packages it is more of a run first offense like the Rams currently run. That's why Turner was perfect for that scheme and ran the ball around 300 times a season. A Modified spread Offense may call for at or around 200-250 but you also are in line to catch 40-65 passes out of the backfield in space. This is where the value for Jackson rises the most. Look for Jackson to easily get 300 touches in this offense.

 -The Talent-

Steven Jackson comes from Oregon State and has secured at least 8 1,000 yard seasons facing a loaded box. This will be the first time in his professional career where he will have some room to roam. If you watched any of the Rams games last year you can clearly see that Jackson has a lot left to offer. Greg Cosell of NFL Films said this about Jackson on twitter  "He's still a very, very good player," said Cosell.  and he still got some quickness. You don't call him a speed back -- he's not that guy -- but he still has some ability to get outside. He's always been a finisher. He's a guy with natural power. He's both strong and physical." CLICK HERE FOR HIGHLIGHTS 2012  In my dynasty league I scooped up Jackson quickly trading my 2014 Rd #1 and #2 to secure him to my roster now you go and act accordingly. Remember I always say " Never tell a player who he is watch the coaching staff, the scheme, and the talent and let them tell you who they are.   
 
#1 pick in the draft type talent meets opportunity, in the right scheme, you ALWAYS get excellent results. 
 

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“2013 Re Draft Wait for TE and QB”

THE FANTASY TYPHOON

OFF SEASON FILES

Hello Fantasy footballers it’s me again THE FANTASY TYPHOON here to bring you some way too early information to help you dominate your upcoming NFL fantasy football season. I just participated in a experts draft March 17, 2013 on My Fantasy League sponsored by my good friend Jim Day AKA Fantasy Taz (@FANTASYTAZ on twitter) if you want to see the results go here MY FANTASY LEAGUE DRAFT LIVE  I think it’s open to the public. (Shoot Taz a tweet and ask to participate/test a mock draft to see for yourself)

The reason I am writing you this early is to give you the heads up on the trends that are taking place in 2013. I do expect them to change from now till September but not by much. The QB and TE positions are deep this year and the running backs will go early and often. The 1.01 to the 1.08 were all running backs in this draft. I had the 1.09 slot and I took Rob Gronkowski (Gronk) just to try and test a new strategy. Then the 1.10 to the 2.01 were more running backs. So now we find ourselves are at the 2.02 pick of a 12 team league with 11 of 32 running backs off of the board. WOW! If you participate in a re draft league where you can trade your draft slot I would try and catch the 1.12 & 2.01. In my opinion this is the best slot to draft out of this season because you can secure 2 premium running backs before the cliff. In this draft the 12^th slot was manned by J. D. Beckler II @JDBeckler who did a fantastic job in taking Matt Forte and Alfred Morris. Please be advised that the draft is the biggest and best time to transfer talent to your team. A good draft with a diligent waiver wire pursuit makes all of the difference of a 1^st or last place finish.

Like I said earlier I took Gronk in the first and as you can see when round 2 came up my best choice was Darren McFadden then Lamar Miller in the third. I was way behind the flow of the draft as far as running backs are concerned. The running backs dried up before I could get 2 solid pieces. Please don’t make this mistake this year because I want you to maximize your roster spot and make the playoffs. So remember that it is wise to go RB + RB + WR + WR then do as you please. Set your core of talent up for much success and learn from my mock draft.

Hint: Stephen Jackson will go bananas this year. CLICK HERE FOR ARTICLE

Good luck and much success to your fantasy football teams this year. 

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HARRY WHO?

DYNASTY MOMENT FROM “THE FANTASY TYPHOON”

"SLEEPER CELL FILES "

Hello fantasy footballers it’s time for another installment from your favorite fantasy football mastermind ‘The Fantasy Typhoon”. Now with all of the buzz on twitter about the changes that the Falcons are making this year everyone is yapping about Matty Ice, Julio Jones, Roddy White and “yes” they should be, but what about Harry? 

OK, let’s examine this a little further. We all know that Matt Ryan is the QB and according to the preseason film Julio Jones is manning the “Z” which makes him the #1 WR in this system. We also know that Roddy White is in the “X’ which is the 2cnd and 3^rd read for the QB but what about the “W”. Have we forgotten all about the slot position and what that entails? History shows that in a Modified Spread Offense the “W” or slot position is the #2 target for that type of offense. So why are we overlooking it for the Falcons?

 The “W” receiver MUST be able to break the jam at the line of scrimmage (LOS) and he must be able to run precise routes and read defenses to know where to be for the ball. Third downs are the “money downs’ for this position. So with all that being said who mans this position for the new pass happy Falcons offense? Well fantasy footballers please meet Mr. Harry Douglas (CLICK HERE) 

Harry clocks in at 5’11 and 176 which fits the prototype of the “W” perfect. He has excellent speed and size to be able to beat his defenders when running his routes. He also excels with yards after catch (YAC). I can’t really get into his stats because they don’t matter when you are in your first year with a new scheme. It’s all new and it all starts in 2012. He has all of the makings to be a favorite target for Matty and will definitely eat into the “X’s” production. Think Wes Welker in the slot for the Patriots. While they run their offense a little different you should be able to see the importance of his role now. Harry Douglas is what I call a “sleeper cell” right about now. I anticipate the buzz to pick up once he suits up and plays his first preseason game. He has been hurt so he should play soon. 

Remember that this is not rocket science or guessing this is schemes and OC’s telling us quietly what they are planning to do. Right now as of today no one is picking up Harry Douglas. So while all of your league mates are picking up Randy Moss and Plaxico Burress you go and get Harry Douglas in the late rounds. You might be pleasantly surprised by his fantasy production. It’s not my job to tell you how many yards and how many catches that Harry will make this year. It’s my job to tell you what the player + scheme + situation is saying. It’s saying to go GET”EM. 

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DYNASTY MOMENTS AND NUGGETS

FROM THE DESK OF”THE FANTASY TYPHOON”

What’s good fantasy footballers, experts, amateurs, and high money rollers. Whether you play for recreation or for a living fantasy football is talking to you loud and clear. I have a new concept that I want to spring on you. It’s called “LISTEN WITH YOUR EYES”.  I know it sounds crazy huh. But if you listen with your eyes to what the NFL teams are doing right in front of your face things will begin to make sense. Here are a few of my notes from my desk mainly for my dynasty/keepers followers.

Ever wonder why Manning chose Denver? Manning chose Denver because they run the same scheme or sets or offense as he did in Indianapolis. They both run the Ace/W personnel offense so making the switch to Denver won’t take too long to adapt. Oh, and FYI Arizona runs it also. That’s why his decision came down to those 2 teams. Makes a little more sense? Manning has just told you that he is planning on putting up the same type stats in that Broncos uniform. It’s the same scheme. Once he gets chemistry with those receivers it’s just a matter of time. So draft Manning accordingly and in dynasty wait till next year for the real flourish.

Wonder why Detroit gets to the draft and takes a WR in the first round when they clearly need a corner? Detroit is a Modified Spread Offense and they plan on throwing the ball that’s why they drafted Broyles and left the corner situation on hold. Also it’s why Megatron got the big bucks and one of their top defensive players is not in camp. They would rather add offensive weapons to their offense than secure the defense. That is saying a lot. Oh, they have been dying for a “W” WR. They have him now. Forget Titus Young (the “X”) they are going to gut defenses right down the seam with Broyles at the “W” as their running game. That’s why they are not worried with Jahvid on the PUP. They have told us they are throwing the ball a TON. So draft Stafford and Megatron (no regression) and Broyles BOLDLY.

Wonder why Houston paid Foster and let Mario walk? They are a Modified West Coast Offense with zone blocking scheme. So why not let Foster walk and use Tate? They are telling us that the future is in Foster and they are going to ride him till the cows come home. So draft Foster with confidence in dynasty. They are riding him and so should you.

Have you ever wondered why Cincinnati keeps drafting tall receivers? They draft tall fast receivers to mask the weak arm of Andy Dalton. They knew that when they drafted him so expect a RB next year if BGE doesn’t make the grade. In dynasty formats don’t be afraid to sell high on BGE if he looks a little rusty.

Who’s better for dynasty/keeper/redraft Andrew Luck or RGIII? Well once you look at the schemes you will see why Shanny put up the farm and why Cleveland went with Trent. Cleveland wants to run the ball and take dings and dunks down the field so Weeden and Trent are what they wanted. They fit what they are trying to accomplish in Cleveland. On the other hand RGIII fits the Modified West Coast Offense that the Shanny’s run while Luck is in the Ace/W personnel. So the schemes tell us that RGIII and the Redskins will run to throw and Luck and the Colts will throw to run. Expect a bigger season each and every year from Luck including 2012. Dynasty leagues make your adjustments before it’s too late.

These are just a few of many little dynasty moments and nuggets that I jot down while doing my research.

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Is ADP a Law or a Map for Success?

Hello fantasy footballers it’s your favorite friend The Fantasy Typhoon here to drop you a little tips and nuggets to help make your 2012 fantasy football draft the best ever. 

I was on twitter the other day and I ran across one of my favorite friends Josh Moore (follow him at @4for4Josh on twitter ( CLICK HERE). We were going through the debate of whether or not an ADP sheet should be followed to the tee. I immediately said NO because ADP was designed to map out your fantasy draft plan and not a law that if broken you land in fantasy football jail. After all it’s just a player consensus of where other drafters have taken a player and definitely not a law. ADP when used properly is a weapon for you to know when to pull the trigger on your targeted players for your team at the last possible minute. 

The question was should you skip over Matty Ice (MATT RYAN ROTOWORLD CLICK HERE) in the sixth (his ADP CLICK HERE ) because it was too early to draft him. I replied that at 1pm on Sunday no one will care whether you took Matty at 5^th, 6^th or even or 4^th just as long as you got him in your line up. This immediately reminded me of my 2011 draft where Matt Stafford was being drafted at or around the 7^th round. The guy in front of me selected DeShaun Jackson and I quickly took Matt Stafford in the 6^th round and laughed. The remarks from my league mates were, “hey Staff is an injury risk” and “why are you reaching.” Well in the end Matt Stafford went on to be the #4 QB in our league and I won the championship from that pick. I used ADP to my advantage because I knew that if I did not pick him then my chances after that round were thin. Did I break the ADP law yep, sure did? Do I care NO, and you should not either. Once the film shows you who a player is believe it. If you have to pick a player a round or two early just to make sure that you secure that player on your roster then DO IT. 

I always try to make sure that in each and every draft I secure a Modified Spread or Ace/W Personnel QB because I know they have the scheme and OC’s blessing to spread the ball around to keep the offense on schedule. Let’s break it down. Have you ever wondered why the top five fantasy QB’s are always the same? Because the majorities are Modified Spread QB’s with talent. A modified spread QB needs to excel in 2 things to be a BEAST. 1. He has to be able to read defenses and 2. He needs to be accurate when throwing the ball. FYI Brees/Brady/Stafford/Fitzpatrick and now Matty Ice is all Modified Spread QB’s. Is this a coincidence? No it’s just scheme + talent + opportunity = top 6. (FYI Fitzpatrick can’t read defenses and is not accurate enough to excel to the top 6 level) 

Now Matty Ice played in a Traditional Pro Set Offense last year and finished right where they all finish, in the middle. Romo/Eli/Rivers are all Traditional Pro Set Offense QB’s. Is this another coincidence, No! It’s a combination of the HC, OC, player and scheme telling you who they are. With Matty Ice moving up to the Modified Spread from the Traditional Pro set his numbers will climb as well as Julio “Z” Roddy “X” and Tony “Y” Mike Mularkey tried to implement a spread offense from a traditional format. That’s why it didn’t work out right last year. So now that Matty Ice is in a passing system he should be the Matt Stafford of 2012. So if he is there in the 5^th round I am drafting him immediately. I may take him in the 4^th according to my draft slot. Remember, don’t tell the player who he is just watch the schemes and coaches and players and they will tell you exactly who they are. Matty Ice is telling us he’s ready to move up to be a top tier QB. Act accordingly.

Coming Next: The Fantasy Typhoon's Dynasty Moments!

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Marcedes Lewis in 2012 GET"EM

 Marcedes Lewis Will Bounce Back!

Let's Find Out Why!

Please remember that when #1 pick in the draft type talent meets opportunity, in the right scheme, you ALWAYS get excellent results.  

-The Coaches and Schemes - 

New HC Mike Murlarkey and OC Bob Bratkowski who Mike Murlarkey brought over with him from the Falcons last year are planning to run the Traditional Pro Set Offense with a run heavy twist. (the same as the Cowboys but they run it pass heavy). During Mike's time in ATL he was a lover of this offensive scheme and what you saw in ATL was a TON of targets to the #1 WR which is the Z or Flanker position manned by Roddy White. The second stat stuffing position was the Y or TE position manned by Tony Gonzalez (the most talented TE in the league). Also look at Witten's numbers and targets in the Y or TE position for the Cowboys. That is how the "Y" position produces in this offense. It did it in ATL and in Dallas and it will do the same in Jacksonville.

 -The Opportunity-

 In the Traditional Pro Set Offense the "Y" or TE is the #2 stat producing position on the team. Justin Blackmon is suppose to man the "Z" but he has not signed his contract yet and Laurent Robinson is trying to hold it down but he is not talented enough. Justin Blackmon (#1 pick in the draft type talent) will be a BEAST once he signs and learns how to run his assignments correctly (DYNASTY format pick up). Blackmon can be Roddy White Jr. in this offense but he's missing crucial reps in training camp because that is where the team learns the Traditional Pro Set Offense and learns to perfect the system. Marcedes Lewis is there and throwing down. Here's what the camp spectators are saying  about him on twitter " Marcedes Lewis featured in red zone" and "Nice catch by Marcedes Lewis in the end zone. TD throw by Gabbert" and finally "Marcedes Lewis has caught everything. Get the feeling he was embarrassed by last year. Just sort of feels that way watching him"

 -The Talent-

Now let's add in the last piece to the puzzle and that's the talent of Marcedes Lewis. Now just because the system or scheme or "Y" position calls for a ton of targets to the TE does not mean that all Marcedes has to do is show up and show out (look at Laurent Robinson). You have to be ready physically and mentally to man the position to perfection. Marcedes was a #1 pick for the Jags back in 2006 coming over from UCLA. He has more than the necessary talent to man the TE position and finish among the top 10 in TE's this yr. Here's the shocker he is either on your wavier wire or he is going undrafted. I just bought him in one of my DYNASTY leagues FA auction format for a dollar. This is not rocket science nor is it a hunch. This is knowing your OC and HC's offensive schemes and looking at the positions and reacting before the calculator experts dig in around 2013. This is the perfect storm brewing for Marcedes. There is nothing sleeper about this. It's just when #1 pick in the draft type talent meets opportunity, in the right scheme, you ALWAYS get excellent results.  

Writen by THE FANTASY TYPHOON

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